Weak Demand and Poor Shipments from Refineries Lead to Continuous Decline in Petroleum Coke Prices [SMM Analysis]

SMM, May 31:

In the petroleum coke market, shipments from refineries during the week showed mediocre performance. Downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing, mainly focusing on restocking to meet immediate inventory consumption needs. With strong wait-and-see sentiment, petroleum coke prices at refineries continued to decline.

Specifically, refineries under CNOOC generally lowered their petroleum coke prices this week, with adjustments ranging from 100 to 150 yuan/mt. The current price range is 3,300-3,400 yuan/mt. Binzhou Petrochemical is still under maintenance and has not provided a quote. Downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, prompting refineries to cut prices to boost shipments, but the effectiveness remains to be seen. Refineries under PetroChina in the north-east China region had relatively mediocre shipments during the week, with sufficient supply. Petroleum coke prices remained stable, with the current price range at 3,350-3,650 yuan/mt. It was also learned that Dagang Petrochemical reduced its prices by 200 yuan/mt during the week. Additionally, it was understood that after entering June, low-sulphur petroleum coke prices in the north-east China region continued to decline, with adjustments ranging from 100 to 150 yuan/mt. For Sinopec, refinery transactions for petroleum coke were mediocre during the week, with prices falling by 60-220 yuan/mt. For local refineries, downstream enterprises maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment during the week, resulting in poor shipments from refineries and a continuous decline in petroleum coke prices. As of Friday this week, the average price of petroleum coke at local refineries was approximately 2,247 yuan/mt, down 5.13% from last Friday. Affected by domestic petroleum coke price fluctuations, especially those at local refineries, port petroleum coke prices also gradually declined. However, the current shipment situation of imported petroleum coke is also relatively mediocre, with port inventories continuing to increase.

In terms of supply, four refineries completed maintenance and resumed production this week, leading to an increase in petroleum coke supply. On the demand side, as the month-end approaches, downstream enterprises are clearly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, being cautious in purchasing, and maintaining a purchasing strategy focused on restocking to meet immediate needs, with no obvious signs of demand growth.

Overall, some refineries completed maintenance and resumed production this week, leading to an increase in supply, particularly for medium- and high-sulphur petroleum coke. Coupled with the wait-and-see attitude of downstream enterprises in the petroleum coke market at month-end, market trading activity has weakened, and petroleum coke prices have fallen continuously. Despite the approaching holiday, downstream enterprises have not shown significant stockpiling behavior, still focusing on purchasing as needed. In general, the petroleum coke market currently lacks significant supportive factors on both the supply and demand sides, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term.